The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on Exchange Rate in Egypt (An Applied Study)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56830/IJAMS07202305Keywords:
Interest rate on deposits, Interest rate on loans, Exchange RateAbstract
This study aims to measure the impact of interest rates on deposits on the exchange rate and measure the effect of interest rates on loans on the exchange rate. The first hypothesis states that interest rates on deposits don't affect on exchange rate. The second hypothesis states interest rates on loans don't affect the exchange rate, The researcher will be relying on a combination of inductive and deductive approaches to carry out two types of study as follows: An Analytical study through the analysis of books, periodicals, theses related to interest rate and exchange rate. An applied study, The study period has been applied to the monthly weighted average interest rate on loans and deposits and the monthly weighted average exchange rate in Egypt for the period from January 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022) relying on the Excel program to prepare data. The results of the statistical study to test the first hypothesis show: a weak positive relationship between the independent variable (Weighted Average Interest Rates deposits) and the dependent variable (exchange rate). The higher the Interest Rates deposits, the higher the value of the exchange rate. The results of the statistical study to test the second hypothesis show: a positive relationship between the independent variable (Interest Rates on loans) and the dependent variable (exchange rate).The higher the Interest Rates on loans, the higher the value of the exchange rate.
References
Abu Bakar, N., & Rosbi, S. (2020). ” Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) to Equity Market and Currency Exchange Rate”. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) Volume 11, Issue 2 Ser. VI (Mar – Apr 2020), PP 22-31. Alber, N. (2020). ” The Effect of Coronavirus Spread on Stock Markets.
Capasso, S., Napolitano, O., & Viveros Jiménez, A. (2019). "The long-run interrelationship between exchange rate and interest rate: the case of Mexico". Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 46 No. 7, pp. 1380-1397. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-04-2019-0176.
Capasso, S., Napolitano, O., & Viveros Jiménez, A. L. (2019). "The long-run interrelationship between exchange rate and interest rate: the case of Mexico". Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 46 No. 7, pp. 1380-1397. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-04-2019-0176. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-04-2019-0176
Fang, X., & Zhang, Y. (2021). An analysis of the dynamic asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the RMB exchange rate. Asian Economics Letters, 1(4), 18644. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.18644
Hashchyshyn, A. (2020). How does the interest rate influence the exchange rate? 626052572. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2020.250.01
Holcman, J., & Prostejovská, Z. (2022). Relationship between real estate and stock market during the coronavirus crises in the Czech Republic. In IOP Conference Series: . Materials Science and Engineering , (Vol. 1218, No. 1, p. 012032). IOP Publishing. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/1218/1/012032
Kartikaningsih, D., Sari, M., & Waspada, I. (2021). The Analysis of Exchange Rate Factors and Interest Rate on Stock Price of Pharmaceutical Companies in Indonesia. In 5th Global Conference on Business. Management and Entrepreneurship (GCBME 2020) , (pp. 5861). Atlantis Press. Mántey, G. (2011). “La política de tasa de interés interbancaria y la inflación en México”. Investigación Económica, Vol. 70 No. 277, pp. 37-68.
March. (2020). IFRS accounting considerations of the coronavirus outbreak .
McKibbin, W& Fernando, R, 2020,” The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios”, CAMA Working Paper 19/2020 February 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3547729
Ofori-Boateng, K., Ohemeng, W., Agyapong, E.K. and Bribinti, B.J. (2022), "The impact of COVID-19 on stock returns of listed firms on the stock market: Ghana's experience", African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Vol. 13 No. 1, pp. 136-146. https://0810b2npw-1103-y-https doiorg.mplbci.ekb.eg/10.1108/AJEMS-02-2021-0074 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-02-2021-0074
Mohamed, Y. A., Lashin, M. M., & Mohamed, H. S. (2022). The Impact of Interest and Inflation Rates on Deposits Behavior of Banks: The Case of Egypt. The Academic Journal of Contemporary Commercial Research, 2(1), 55-80. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21608/ajccr.2022.223049
Rakshit, B., & Neog, Y. (2021). "Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatilities: evidence from selected emerging economies". Studies in Economics and Finance, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://0810b2npw-1103-y-htt. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-09-2020-0389
Vurur, N. (2020). "Relationship between Interest Rates, Exchange Rate and Investor Sentiment in Turkey", Özen, E. and Grima, S. (Ed.) Uncertainty and Challenges in Contemporary Economic Behaviour (Emerald Studies in Finance. Insurance, and Risk Manageme Emerald Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 127-138. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80043095-220201010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80043-095-220201010
Shaoling Li a, Yuwei Yan b (2021),"DATA-driven shock impact of COVID-19 on the market financial system" https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ipm.2021.102768 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ipm.2021.102768
The Case of the Worst 6”, SSRN, Electronic copy available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/results.cfm.
Uddin, G. S., Yahya, M., Goswami, G. G., Lucey, B., & Ahmed, A. (2022). Stock market contagion during the COVID-19 pandemic in emerging economies. International Review of Economics & Finance, 79, 302-309. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.028
https://www.maannews.net/articles/2002209.html
www.cbe.org.eg






